Скачать книгу - Regimes of Ignorance

An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

Former subprime lender Richard Bitner once worked in an industry that started out helping disadvantaged customers but collapsed due to greed, lack of financial control and willful ignorance. In Confessions of a Subprime Lender: An Insider's Tale of Greed, Fraud, and Ignorance, he reveals the truth about how the subprime lending business spiraled out of control, pushed home prices to unsustainable levels, and turned unqualified applicants into qualified borrowers through creative financing. Learn about the ways the mortgage industry can be fixed with his twenty suggestions for critical change.

While the entire world knows Mark Twain as the renowned author of many classic American novels, few people are aware that he was also a highly successful businessman. In fact, more than half of his life was consumed by moneymaking pursuits, which often resulted in writing projects being neglected–but at the same time, these adventures were the inspiration behind many of the characters found in his books. In Ignorance, Confidence, and Filthy Rich Friends, Peter Krass captures a little-known side of this American icon and details the roller coaster ride of his business ventures in a dramatic, entertaining, and informative narrative style. From Twain's time as the founder of his own publishing house–where he made a small fortune publishing General Ulysses S. Grant's memoirs–to his foray into venture capitalism and investment in numerous start-up firms, to his focus on his own inventions, this engaging book reveals the Mark Twain that few of us know: the no-nonsense, successful American businessman.

Africa’s Information Revolution was recently announced as the 2016 prizewinner of the Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences – congratulations to the authors James T. Murphy and Padraig Carmody! Africa’s Information Revolution presents an in-depth examination of the development and economic geographies accompanying the rapid diffusion of new ICTs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Represents the first book-length comparative case study ICT diffusion in Africa of its kind Confronts current information and communication technologies for development (ICT4D) discourse by providing a counter to largely optimistic mainstream perspectives on Africa’s prospects for m- and e-development Features comparative research based on more than 200 interviews with firms from a manufacturing and service industry in Tanzania and South Africa Raises key insights regarding the structural challenges facing Africa even in the context of the continent’s recent economic growth spurt Combines perspectives from economic and development geography and science and technology studies to demonstrate the power of integrated conceptual-theoretical frameworks Include maps, photos, diagrams and tables to highlight the concepts, field research settings, and key findings

The final psychological thriller featuring Javier Falcon, the tortured detective from ‘The Hidden Assassins’ and ‘The Blind Man of Seville.’A sweltering Seville is recovering from the shock of a terrorist attack and Inspector Jefe Javier Falcon is struggling to fulfil his promise to its citizens: that he would find the real perpetrators of the outrage. The death of a gangster in a spectacular car crash offers vital evidence implicating the Russian mafia in his investigation…but pitches Falcon into the heart of a turf war over prostitution and drugs.Now the target of vicious hoods, Falcon finds those closest to him are also coming under intolerable pressure: his best friend, who’s spying for the Spanish government, reveals that he is being blackmailed by Islamist extremists, and Falcon’s own lover suffers a mother’s worst nightmare.In the face of such fanaticism and brutality, their options seem limited and Falcon realizes that only the most ruthless retaliation will work.But there is a terrible price to pay…