Найти книгу: "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices"

This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Decision making by the aircrafts services of the international airport, which provides for intensive traffic of aircraft and their ground handling, becomes a very topical issue. If earlier it was believed that the intensity is provided only by the number of runways, nowadays a large accumulation of aircraft on the airport platform-field creates equally complex difficulties in comparison with aircraft take-offs and landings. Solving such problems with the use of «crisp methods» of queuing theory gives little. This article deals with modern «fuzzy methods» based on simulation modeling and fuzzy logic.

Learn all you need to know about trading and forecasting with technical analysis Kase on Technical Analysis is the ultimate guide to forecasting and trading technically, a comprehensive «all you need to know» review of the topics. Award-winning instructor, Cynthia A. Kase, CMT1, MFTA2, engineer, veteran energy trader, and one of the world's preeminent market technicians, captures her 30 plus years of experience in thirteen half-hour sessions, for more than six in-depth hours on technical analysis essentials. Viewers will develop a better understanding of charting and technical indicators, and get an inside look at cutting edge material based on Kase's own unique indicators and innovative approaches to trading and forecasting. The video describes key techniques for interpreting market behavior and developing a technical approach to trading. The workbook provides practice exercises that reinforce the concepts learned as Kase guides viewers through the various methodologies and their real-life applications to successful market interactions. Technical analysis is based on the premise that the behavior of a market reveals all that is known about it. Price action, volatility and rates of price changes may be harnessed by Kase's techniques to forecast future prices, identify low risk, high reward trading opportunities, and to cut losses while letting profits run. Kase on Technical Analysis shows how it's done, providing clear and wide-ranging instruction and expert insight that helps viewers to: Build a foundational understanding of charting and technical indicators, including an introduction to latest techniques Learn the most important technical methods for interpreting and analyzing market behavior Effectively apply technical analysis to trading strategy, risk management and market forecasting Formulate entry and exit strategies by using pattern recognition and properly applying technical indicators Technical analysis is a core discipline used by successful traders to assess market conditions and time trades. This package covers the aspects of technical analysis needed for intelligent interaction with the markets, from theory to practice, with concrete guidance toward real-world application. For traders wanting to «come up to speed» on technical analysis, for those wanting a refresher on the topic, as well as for seasoned traders looking for new ideas, Kase on Technical Analysis provides deep insight from a global authority. 1 Chartered Market Technician awarded by the Market Technicians Association 2 Master of Financial Technical Analysis awarded by the International Federation of Technical Analysts

A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forces that shape markets There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a great part in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, which conventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain. However, these forces, sometimes labeled ‘animal spirits’ or ‘irrational exuberance, have remained elusive – until now. The Mystery of Market Movements provides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit from changes in human investment behaviour based on the workings of the collective unconscious. Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influential ideas – archetypes – to explain how they form investor’s perceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. The Mystery of Market Movements provides; A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes based on Carl Jung’s theories and empirical case studies that highlights and assesses the influences of the collective unconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists For the first time being able to objectively measure the impact of archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view to provide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. This is done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop a measurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of the unconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism, drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowing for quantification into time series The book is supplemented with an online resource that presents continuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictive capabilities to major financial indexes Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behind their own financial decisions. This book explains why psychological drivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investment behaviour but also political, cultural and social trends. Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curve and profit from market tendencies that more traditional methods completely overlook.